Know what is behind the number before you rely on it.
A figure that prices a case, a book or a reserve is only as good as the path behind it. This is the path every Criterica estimate takes, in five stations, from the filed record to the figure in your report.
- Station 1
It starts with what was filed
Every estimate begins with filed court and regulatory records: dockets, orders, judgments and dispositions, each kept with its source and the date it was recorded. A record enters once, with its source, and is counted once.
Figure 1A filed record: each entry dated and kept with its source.Illustrative - Station 2
The same party, resolved once
The same firm, judge, provider or insurer appears under many spellings across many filings. Each is resolved once, to one connected record, so its full history is read together and the exposure positions share across a book is visible.
Figure 2Records that refer to the same party collapse into one connected record.Illustrative - Station 3
How matters like yours resolved
For matters like yours, the record shows how they resolved, how long they took and for how much. Each of those is kept as a distribution with its tail, never as one average, because the tail is where the cost of being wrong sits.
Figure 3Time to resolution as measured history: the share of comparable matters still open over time.Illustrative - Station 4
The estimate, with its band and its version
Your matter’s estimate is stated with its band, its date and the version of the model that produced it. Run it again on the same record and the same version returns the same band. It moves only when the record moves, and the earlier estimate stays on file beside the new one. Every model is validated on later outcomes it never saw before it is used.
Figure 4An estimate as delivered: the band, the most likely point and the tail, stamped with its version and date.Illustrative - Station 5
One calculation record, read everywhere
The memo, the API response, the certificate and the dashboard all read the same calculation record. The figure in your report is the figure in your system, and when it changes, the change names the figure it replaced.
Figure 5One calculation record, read by every surface that shows the number.Illustrative
See the path on your own matters
Send a case list or a book. Each matter comes back with its band, its version and the record it was read from.
Next step
See what your book is worth before you commit capital.
Describe the book. After qualification you receive a written report, a per-matter schedule and a review session.
Request an assessmentRelated reading
Need funding for a case, a firm or a book? Criterica Capital