Judgment-based underwriting does not scale.
Litigation funders deploy capital into binary outcomes: win or lose, recover or not. Every underwriting decision is a probability estimate. Today most funders rely on attorney case assessments, qualitative reviews, and institutional pattern recognition. That process is not calibrated against actual outcomes at the jurisdiction level. It cannot be audited. It cannot be replicated. And it does not scale beyond the experience of the individuals making the call.
Criterica provides the quantified probability layer that transforms case review from judgment to data. Every prediction is calibrated against the actual historical outcome distribution of the relevant jurisdiction, judge, and case type. Not pooled national averages that obscure the variance that matters.
Calibrated win and settlement probability at the case level.
Plaintiff win probability and settlement probability, modeled by jurisdiction, judge, case type, and filing history. Not a score. A calibrated number that means the same thing every time. AUC-validated against held-out test sets partitioned at the circuit level.
Case timeline predictions for capital deployment modeling.
Expected case duration in days, modeled by venue and case type. Build IRR models against real timeline distributions from actual filed cases in the corpus, not optimistic assumptions from deal teams.
Aggregate exposure across funded dockets.
Concentration risk by jurisdiction, case type, and opposing counsel. Correlation analysis across funded portfolios. Stress testing against adverse outcome scenarios drawn from historical distributions.
Settlement probability by stage, with timing distributions.
At what stage does this case type typically settle in this venue? What is the statistical center of gravity for settlement outcomes in cases with this profile? Data-driven answers to the questions that define every funding decision.
Jurisdiction-specific production models trained on real filed dockets across federal districts, circuits, and state courts: the same venues where commercial litigation capital is deployed.