That figure is computed across a large sample of decided matters in Criterica's proprietary outcomes corpus. The more important fact sits underneath it: only about one matter in five ever reaches such a disposition. The rest settle, transfer, consolidate, or are dismissed. For anyone pricing legal risk, the question was never only who wins. It is how often a case is decided at all, and how long it takes to get there.
Half resolve in seven months. The slowest tenth run past two years.
Time to resolution is the lever that turns an outcome into a return. Capital committed to a matter that runs three years earns a very different rate than the same outcome in nine months. This is the distribution most underwriting never sees.
Same matter, different venue, a different bet.
Plaintiff-favorable odds range from 47 to 77 percent across the federal circuits, and median resolution from 131 to 356 days. Venue is not a footnote. It is a primary input.
30-point spread between best and worst circuit. Same case, different venue — a fundamentally different bet.
Outcome and duration move together, and not how intuition expects.
Pharmaceutical and product matters carry strong plaintiff odds but run past two years. Patent and contract resolve in roughly two hundred days. Pricing that ignores the timeline misprices the asset.