"Markets price against a benchmark. Legal outcomes never had one. The Criterica Index is the standing reading, built from 16,302 verified judges and 2.5M+ cases analyzed, that a market can quote, compare against, and hold itself to."
Six standing series, computed from the fleet.
Each component is a published reading, not a one-off estimate. Together they form a term structure for expected legal outcomes across verticals, venues, and time.
A standing probability index for each major litigation vertical, computed from the production model fleet. Antitrust, securities, patent, employment, mass tort, and more, each carrying a current expected-outcome reading and a directional trend against prior periods.
Yield curves that map expected recovery against time to resolution for a given case type and posture. Read the curve the way a fixed-income desk reads a term structure, near-term settlement value against the cost of carrying a matter to trial.
Duration benchmarks drawn from comparable matters, expressed as a settlement window. Measure where an active matter sits against the standard, rather than against the last deal a desk happened to remember.
Venue-level outcome indices across 89 jurisdictions, capturing how expected outcomes shift by circuit, district, and forum for the same case type. The reference for pricing venue risk before a matter is filed.
Return expectations adjusted for the time value of resolution and presented as bands rather than points. The width of each band reports dispersion directly, so a tight band and a wide band are never read as the same expectation.
A companion series that tracks how tightly outcomes cluster within each index. Rising dispersion is a signal in its own right, a sign that a vertical or venue is becoming harder to price against the standard.
Counsel rated into expected-outcome bands.
Criterica rates litigation counsel the way a rating agency rates credit. Each band reports expected-outcome performance derived from comparable matters, controlled for case type, venue, and opposing counsel. The bands describe expected performance against the standard. They are not guarantees of any individual result.
Top decile expected-outcome performance against comparable matters, controlled for case type, venue, and opposing counsel.
Consistently above the benchmark across a deep, recent matter history with low outcome dispersion.
At or modestly above the benchmark, with performance stable across venues and case types.
In line with the benchmark. Expected outcomes track the comparable-matter standard for the relevant verticals.
Below the benchmark on a controlled basis, or limited comparable history to support a higher band.
Bands are computed from comparable matters across 89 jurisdictions and are reassessed as new outcomes resolve. A rating reflects expected performance against the benchmark, not a prediction of any single pending matter.
The quarterly publication the market reads.
Each quarter, the Index is published as The State of Legal Risk. It is drawn directly from the same series that funders and insurers price against, the category-defining read on where expected outcomes are moving and why.
Read the 2026 Baseline Edition →Period-over-period movement in the Outcome Probability Indices by vertical, with the verticals that moved most flagged against their prior readings.
Where venue and circuit indices repriced, including the notable venue movements that changed the expected-outcome standard for a given case type.
How tightly outcomes are clustering across the fleet. Widening dispersion is reported as a leading indicator of repricing, not a footnote.
Movement in benchmark settlement windows by case type and forum, so desks can see whether matters are resolving faster or slower than the standard implies.
A market matures when it agrees on a number to quote against. Equities have an index. Credit has a rating. Legal outcomes have had neither.
The Criterica Index is built to be that reference point. Not one vendor's opinion among many, but the standing reading the market compares itself to, the way a desk quotes a spread over a benchmark rather than guessing in isolation.
Built from 28,212 total models against 475M+ real court records, the Index is wide enough and current enough to be quoted. The objective is simple. When the market wants to know what an outcome is worth, it reads the Index first.