Criterica Intelligence · Regulated Outcomes Intelligence · same file, same number, every time
For funders

Price your book from the record.

Outcome, duration and settlement intelligence for litigation funders: which matters to take, at what advance and price, how long until cash, and what the book is worth today.

Validated on later periods
Models are tested on cases they never saw
Calibration reviewed
A stated likelihood means what it says
Traces to the record
Every answer links back to the filed record
Same file, same number
Rerun a file and the answer does not move
Four questions

Every funding decision is four questions.

  1. 01How likely is each outcome?
  2. 02How long until cash?
  3. 03What does it settle or get awarded for?
  4. 04What is the book worth today?
Where value leaks

Four places a book loses money before anyone notices.

Selection: the wrong matters get funded

Case review rests on attorney assessments that are rarely checked against how comparable matters resolved.

What changes: Each matter is read from the record before capital is committed: how likely each outcome is.

Pricing leakage: one advance rate for every matter

A flat rate overpays the weak matters and underprices the strong ones, and the difference is not visible in the book.

What changes: Advance and price follow what a matter is likely to settle or be awarded for.

Duration risk: cash arrives later than the model assumed

Timing drives the return, and deal-team timelines run optimistic.

What changes: Time to cash comes as a distribution from comparable matters in the same venue.

Surveillance: matters change after the advance

Stage, venue and counsel move, and the book is rarely re-priced when they do.

What changes: Monitor and ReScore re-scores matters as the facts move (on the menu).

Connected exposure: positions that share a firm, judge, provider or insurer are read as one exposure.

See Monitoring
Start here

Start with the book you already hold.

Entry offer · In use

Criterica Portfolio on your own tape

Request a portfolio assessment. We price the book from the record: likely outcome, time to cash and what each matter settles or is awarded for.

  • Written report on the book
  • Per-matter schedule: outcome, duration and settlement bands
  • Economic and scenario model
  • Methodology summary
  • Review session with the team
Request a portfolio assessment
Single matter · On the menu

Criterica Snapshot for a single matter

One matter, read from the record, before you commit to the advance.

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Guide series

Twelve guides on the problems that decide whether a book performs.

How to read a calibrated outcome distribution, why duration dominates IRR, where portfolios carry hidden correlation, and what to demand from any provider claiming to supply outcomes intelligence. No point estimates presented without their distribution. No realized-return predictions.

01
What a Fundable Case Looks Like, by Vertical
Case-selection criteria are not portable across verticals. What clears underwriting in commercial litigation would be rejected in mass tort, and the reverse is equally true — the variables that predict a fundable case change with the case type.
02
How to Read a Calibrated Outcome Distribution
A single number — "68% probability of a favorable outcome" — is the least informative thing a calibrated model produces. The distribution behind it is the underwriting object. Here is what to look at instead.
03
Duration Risk and IRR: Why Time Dominates Return
At a fixed multiple, the difference between an 18-month case and a 36-month case moves IRR more than a meaningful swing in win probability. Most underwriting processes still spend the bulk of their diligence on the number that matters less.
04
Portfolio Construction Across Case Types and Jurisdictions
A book of two hundred cases is not automatically diversified. Correlation in litigation portfolios runs through judges, venues, defendants, and causation theories — axes that case-count diversification does not touch.
05
Jurisdiction Selection as an Underwriting Input
Where a case is filed changes its outcome distribution before either side argues a single fact. Jurisdiction is an underwriting input with measurable effects on probability, duration, and appellate exposure — not a strategic afterthought.
06
Judge Behavior as an Underwriting Input
A judge behavioral profile is a record of docket-management and ruling patterns, built from that judge's own rulings — not a prediction of how any single pending case will be decided. The distinction determines how underwriting should use it.
07
Collectability and Enforcement
Winning is not the same as getting paid. Collectability risk — can this defendant actually satisfy a judgment, and where — is frequently underwritten as an afterthought when it should be priced at intake.
08
Monitoring, Drawdown Gates, and Early-Warning Signals
The underwriting decision made at intake is a snapshot of a case that keeps developing for months or years afterward. A monitoring framework that only re-underwrites at the next capital call is missing most of the useful signal.
09
Pricing Leakage — Where Funders Systematically Misprice
Mispricing in litigation finance is rarely one bad case-by-case call. It is structural, repeats across the entire book, and is detectable in the pattern of realized versus underwritten outcomes if anyone looks for it.
10
Insurer–Funder Collaboration on Litigated Claims
An insurer and a litigation funder are adversaries in a coverage dispute and structurally aligned underwriters of the exact same litigation risk in a growing number of other contexts. Both problems are worth naming precisely.
11
The Secondary Market for Legal Claims
A litigation position can be sold before it resolves — to another fund, a specialty buyer, or as part of a portfolio transfer — but the market stays thin because there is no shared reference price two counterparties can negotiate from.
12
Regulatory-Outcome Assets as an Underwritable Class
Regulatory enforcement outcomes — EPA, SEC, ERISA, antitrust — follow statistical patterns as identifiable as civil litigation outcomes, and capital markets have built almost no systematic underwriting infrastructure around them.
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