Every section is computed from real data. None of it is templated prose.
Executive Summary
Assessment (proceed, proceed with conditions, or hold), calibrated probability band, one-paragraph rationale, and key risk flags. The output a funder reads first.
Deal Overview
Plaintiff and defendant (redacted), venue and assigned judge, NOS code, cause of action, claimed damages, size requested, and law firm profile.
Outcome Intelligence
P(settlement), time-to-resolution percentiles, and circuit and district benchmarks drawn from Criterica's real-records corpus. Five comparable cases with how each ended and how long it took.
Judicial Intelligence
Assigned judge profile — temperament classification, median resolution time for this NOS code, settlement rate vs. district baseline, notable ruling patterns.
Financial Projections
NPV at recovery threshold, IRR (base / bear / bull) computed from the labelled settlement bands and the stated terms, never a predicted return, plus duration scenarios and break-even sensitivity. Full pro forma for the IC packet.
Settlement Analysis
Optimal settlement window by month, comparable settlement distribution for this NOS × venue, defendant settlement velocity from EDGAR filings.
Portfolio Fit
Concentration check against the book being assessed — this firm, this venue, this NOS. Sector correlation across the book and its effect on exposure.
Risk Factors
Top risks ranked by severity — HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW — covering case-specific exposure (expert witness dependency, class cert risk) and systemic factors.
Assessment
Final assessment (proceed, proceed with conditions, or hold) with calibrated probability band. Conditions to clear, if any. Reviewer sign-off area. Model provenance and audit trail ID.
Section 09 gives a funder what it needs to decide.
The memo is not a one-time output. Every section updates as the matter progresses.
New federal docket filings update risk flags and case posture. Matters outside federal courts are returned as not covered.
Settlement windows recalibrate as the matter ages against comparable timelines.
Judicial intelligence refreshes when a ruling is issued — temperament classifications update.
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Next step
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