Backtests are declared before they run.
This registry lists every preregistered backtest of the Criterica Score, with its timestamp, its pass criterion and its result. Results are posted whether the backtest passes or fails.
Preregistration protocol
A backtest of the Criterica Score is declared in writing, with its pass criterion, before it is run. The declaration is time-stamped and published here. The result is published here too, whether the backtest passes or fails.
What must be declared before a backtest runs
- 1.The asset class and the hypothesis being tested.
- 2.The data cutoff: the last date from which data may enter the backtest.
- 3.The metric the backtest reports.
- 4.The pass criterion on that metric, as a threshold fixed in advance.
- 5.The horizon the Score covers.
- 6.The reference population, by membership criteria.
Rules
- Timestamps: each entry carries the timestamp of its registration. The timestamp is set when the entry is published and is never edited.
- No change after registration: the pass criterion, the metric and the cutoff are not changed once an entry is registered. A different test is a new entry.
- Results are posted either way: a passed or failed backtest is posted with its summary and a link to the full result. A failed backtest is not removed.
- Withdrawal is recorded, never deleted: a withdrawn entry stays in the registry with its status changed to withdrawn and the date recorded.
- Sealed outcomes: the files scored in a backtest follow the sealed-outcome rule in the Score Specification.
- A claim activates only after a pass: a validation claim for an asset class is made only after a preregistered backtest on that class has passed, and it cites the entry.
Who may register
Criterica registers backtests of its own Score. A third party may register a backtest of the Score on the same terms by writing to hello@criterica.com with the six declarations above. A third-party entry is published with the registrant’s organization type and the same fields.
Registered backtests
No backtests registered. Entries appear here with their timestamp when registered.
Test the Score on your own file.
Questions
It is a test of the Criterica Score whose asset class, data cutoff, metric and pass criterion are written down and time-stamped before the test is run, so the result cannot be fitted to the answer afterward.
Yes. Results are posted whether the backtest passes or fails. A failed backtest stays in the registry.
It stays in the registry with its status changed to withdrawn and the date recorded. Entries are never deleted.
Yes. The registry is served as JSON at /score/preregistration.json with the same fields shown on this page.