Defense contract disputes are high-stakes, low-frequency, and almost entirely unmodeled.
Billions in government contract disputes move through the Armed Services Board of Contract Appeals, the Civilian Board of Contract Appeals, and federal district courts annually. Procurement protests, False Claims Act investigations, IP disputes, and regulatory enforcement actions define the financial exposure of every major defense and aerospace company. Yet outcome intelligence infrastructure for these proceedings is essentially nonexistent.
The statistical patterns are available. ASBCA proceedings are publicly documented. Federal circuit courts handle patent and IP disputes with traceable outcomes. Government contractor disputes follow identifiable patterns by agency, contract type, and dispute category. Criterica has built the model infrastructure to make these patterns predictive, not just historical.
ASBCA and CBCA outcome probability at the case level.
Win probability and settlement probability for government contract disputes before the ASBCA, CBCA, and Court of Federal Claims. Thirty-nine production models trained on real ASBCA proceedings, calibrated against actual outcomes at AUC 0.6082 on labeled data.
Protest probability, timeline, and resolution modeling.
Procurement protest outcome probability by agency, contract type, and protest category. How does this agency handle protests of this type? What is the realistic timeline to resolution? Calibrated against real COFC and GAO outcome data.
Federal circuit patent and IP outcome modeling for defense technology.
Patent, copyright, and trade secret dispute models trained across all 12 federal circuits. Defense and aerospace IP disputes are covered under the Wave S circuit expansion: 165 production models, AUC-validated on real court filings.
False Claims Act exposure and enforcement action probability.
False Claims Act outcome modeling, export control enforcement probability, and DCSA/CMMC compliance risk for defense contractors. Know the statistical profile of enforcement exposure before the investigation notice arrives.
39 defense contract models trained on ASBCA proceedings. Patent and IP coverage across 12 federal circuits (Wave S). District-level commercial dispute models across qualifying jurisdictions (Wave V). All trained on real filed records, zero synthetic data.
Statistics shown reflect historical or illustrative model outputs derived from real case data. They are not predictions or guarantees of any individual outcome. Litigation results depend on facts, jurisdiction, judge, and counsel, and vary case by case. Model accuracy is subject to selection effects and changing legal dynamics.